Analyst Reports 18: Expect the Unexpected?

By Paul on March 27th, 2009

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I find this utterly disgusting.

In my last Analyst Report, I have mentioned that most of the markets were supported at that time of posting. The next day, it broke the support by a few points. At that time, I felt pretty lousy, thinking that it must be really bad for the market to go so low so fast. I was prepared to switch to bonds for a while if the support was clearly taken out.

But on the safe side to “diversify”, I switched my Sing/Malaysia fund (a part of my portfolio) to a China fund since in my last posting, it was affirmed that SSE is on an uptrend.

And bummer, the pullback from the low was so fast that it shocked many TA traders. I must say it pretty amazing too see for many markets, the indices leaped from one end of the bollinger band to the other. Gosh. Spectacularly so was STI when even DOW dropped for one session, it just ignored it and continued up. Individual stocks like Noble went up by more than double digits for several sessions. Disgusting. STI outperformed SSE by quite a bit for the past few days.

I am still anticipating a severe pullback soon after reaching such a overbought level. Some expert TA analysts like Mimosa have called for a very possible bottom but i am still reserved at this point of time. For me, I would like to see a higher high. Nevermind not catching the bottom.

I like SSE in the chart below. Steady Steady. If broken at the bottom uptrend line, i guess i would switch funds again. Try not to switch so much ba.

For those who have been doing their RSP for these few months, you should be sleeping soundly and probably should not even been reading this post. In the years to come, you won’t even bat an eyelid for not buying at the low here.

Have fun and yes, stay invested (for the long haul).

2009mar26-shanghai-stock-exchange-640x603

6 Responses to “Analyst Reports 18: Expect the Unexpected?”

SGDividends
27 March 2009 at 6:17 am | Permalink

Hey Paul,

Is it possible that this rally is due to window dressing since its near the end of the 1st quarter?

Cos if it is..it could go down in April..

Whats your opinion?

SGDividends’s last blog post..Why Tempted SGDividends Are Not Investing into US Equities….
Richmond
31 March 2009 at 12:19 am | Permalink

bro…bull trap… long term wise next quarter will be bad news all over manz with earnings reports all down…but like you said those who did RSP will be on a better position =)
alex preece
31 March 2009 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

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Alex Preece
Giant Investments
E: alex.preece@giant.org.uk
T: 01273 224002
Paul
2 April 2009 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

Sure a bull trap?

It does seem on the charts that wave 5 of the elliot wave has been taken in a swift and short period of time. If so, the market will form a higher higher soon. The mid-1400 level is a strong support now as it was supported twice. hmmm… bad news will definitely come in the next quarter but i believe most of it are priced in. Market psychology is often stronger than what is reported. I just hope when some unexpected bad news come out, the rally will pull back to a higher low for me to buy in a little.
Analyst Reports 19: Bear Rally, Whipsaw and the likes
2 April 2009 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

[...] my last post, i mentioned about expecting the unexpected and that i was expecting a pullback. It does seem that [...]
Paul
4 April 2009 at 11:13 am | Permalink

Hi Alex, I’ve just sent you an email regarding advertising options on my blog.

Do let me know if you are keen to pursue them.

cheers!
Paul