Analyst Reports 21: Feeling Dismayed at Today’s Meteoric Rise?

By Paul on May 4th, 2009

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Don’t you feel dismayed when you see the regional stock markets shoot up today?

This is particular so when you have just exited and stayed on the sideline.

Well, that’s how i felt when I left work and saw the news today. There was the classic “damnit. I shd have known” feeling and then the rationalisation and consoling of self. And then there are the occasions of lamenting that indeed it might not be probable to time markets at all.

My ex-China funds are parking idly in a cash account while the market whizzed by. To me, it doesn’t really make sense. Fundamentals doesn’t seem to be supporting such a bullish sentiment but apparently I am wrong.

After a one-day plunge of the H1N1 flu announcement, the markets just shrugged off the bad news and continued flying upwards for the past few days. This is in the midst of still-poor economic news. How odd huh? It’s confusing to me and a little worrying. But i read my financial advisor’s email and one thing ring out well in her note: “When in doubt, wait it out“.

In the STI chart below, it’s good to note that today’s EOD price hits nicely at the 200-MA mark. Very significant. Let’s see whether it breaks successfully tmr.

Here are 2 articles I’d thought would be nice to share:

Money Ning on Market Crash
Trading Systems on STI update (hindsight)

Let’s see whether the Sell-and-Go-Away-in-May holds true at the end of the month. It’s always important to see markets in terms of a series of trends and window periods instead of a singular day.

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